Re: Argentine's elections (2)

Jose and colisteros:

Regardless of the result of the elections in Argentina (that will take
place tomorrow) it is important to consider that many voters will vote
for Menem for the same reason than many Mexicans voted for Zedillo:
the fear of disruption in the economic program. Even Fernandez de
Cevallos (a conservative option) was not good enough as a
substitute. That is, also, why many Peruvians voted for Fujimori, buy
in that case it is also important to consider his success in the fight
against terrorism.

Even if a vote for Menem should not automatically be considered a vote
for neoliberalism, it may well be a vote for the attempt to keep the
Argentine peso fixed against the dollar, and inflation low - policy
naturally associated with neoliberalism. If Bordon won (very
improbable right now) his main option to avoid a run against the peso
would be to invite immediatly Domingo Cavallo to stay as Economics
Minister, as Fernandez very probably would have invited Pedro Aspe to
stay in his cabinet.

Jose is right - the results in Argentina (as the elections in Peru)
will present an intersting example of the popular support for economic
orthodoxy in Latin America.