Is belief in the effectiveness of a software engineering method a good predictor of its effectiveness?

Validation of the Effectiveness of Formal Methods of Software Development

Validation of the Effectiveness of Waterfall Methods of Software Development

Validation of the Effectiveness of Agile Methods of Software Development

Validation of the Effectiveness of Your Favorite Method of Software Development

Validation of the Effectiveness of Your Favorite Method of Development of Your Favorite Kind of Software

Validation of Your Cherished Belief about Software Development

Exposure of Published Descriptions of Experiments and Other Empirical Studies That Don't Show What is Claimed to be Shown