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Re: Has Mexico Turned the Corner?
Hello,
As a supporter of the EZLN I remain optimistic about NAFTA and
the Mexican economy. I am no economic wizard though. My opinion on
capitalism in Mexico usually inflames my comrades. Having made this
apology, may I argue that the crisis this winter was a result of
short-term political failures on the part of the Mexican government and
the short-sightedness of North American banks that tend to invest in
speculative ventures instead of sound business ventures - the bankers
failed to treat Mexico as a decent place to invest - nevertheless, NAFTA
is preferable to the old protectionist policies of the past, which have
failed and faded into the past. NAFTA managed better is the path to a
better Mexico, not because capitalism is a positive thing, but because
friendlier business relations between Mexican and North American business
interests, more open markets, less nationalist mistrust, all tend to
promote development more than the old pattern of mistrust and nationalist
protectionism. The failure of the critics of NAFTA and the Mexican
economy is that they have no decent alternatives - the socialist rhetoric
of much of the left on chiapas-l is impotent, and the populists in
Congress who want to reverse NAFTA are hateful anti-Mexican nationalists,
by-and-large. NAFTA is not the capitalist option, nor did NAFTA cause
the ongoing integration of the two capitalist markets - that option and
integration process began long before NAFTA was written - NAFTA is merely
the attempt by the governments to manage what was occurring already.
Having no NAFTA is equivalent to pretending there is no illegal
immigration. Now, if NAFTA and capitalist development in Mexico are
inevitable, given the conditions of capitalism today, then the EZLN is
also a positive influence. Capitalism has failed the people of Chiapas,
but partly because capitalism is crippled there by impediments such as
boss systems and inadequate infrastructure. If the Mexican government
will face up to these things, and the US government will manage NAFTA
better, then NAFTA will in the long run benefit even Chiapas.
Having made these two points, that the recent economic crisis is
short term, and the prospects of NAFTA for the long-term remain bright,
what about the real question asked that I am addressing - is it likely
that the Mexican economy will recover in the mid-tern, that is, over the
next year. Yes. Mexico has much to offer the international market, its
own market is substantial, the Mexican people work like hell, and are
incredibly flexible and enduring in hard times - the Mexican economy will
begin to recover over the next weeks and months, POSSIBLY, and better
times lie ahead. Most Mexicans know this, that is why they do not
support an armed uprising, voted for the PRI in large numbers in spite of
knowledge of corruption - they desire stability and have faith in better
times ahead, just like the people of Peru who voted for Fugimori. This
analysis does not gratify my own left-leaning sentiments, but I am
writing with my brain, not my heartstrings.
OK, flame away comrades.
Victor Story
History
Kutztown University
On Tue, 25 Apr 1995, Michael Peck wrote:
> Everyone on the Bolsa and Wall Street is joining IMF's chorus in singing
> that Mexico appears to be getting out of its economic crisis. It seems to a
> little premature to shout "hallelujah." What do you economic wizards out
> there think?
> Michael Peck
> Editor
> International Reports
> Mexico Service
> mpeck@ucg.com
>
>