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Argentine's elections

   

Eventhough this is a list about mexico, I am forwarding this message
for several reasons.  Argentina is applying neoliberal-like policies
and recently an austerity program and this elections will be a partial
referendum on those policies.  It will be an interesting chance to see
the accuracy of the polls in a latinamerican country with free
elections.  Saludos JB


Source: This information is available to all persons with internet
access at the San Francisco Chronicle www page.


   
   
  `IT'S ME OR CHAOS,' ARGENTINE LEADER WARNS / MENEM HOPES TO AVOID RUNOFF IN
                               TOMORROW'S VOTE 
                                       
   
   
   
   
   
   Buenos Aires 
   
   Seeking to become the longest- serving Argentine leader since General
   Juan Peron, President Carlos Menem is telling voters that their choice
   in tomorrow's election is between ``me or chaos.'' 
   
   Not even new details of atrocities committed by the military during
   Argentina's ``dirty war'' appear to be turning voters against Menem,
   who granted amnesty to many of those responsible. 
   
   A runoff may be necessary, however, because voters have started to
   swing away from Menem to his main rival, Jose Octavio Bordon. There
   are 12 other candidates. 
   
   The latest polls give Menem 40 to 45 percent of the vote, compared
   with 32 percent for Bordon of the center-left Frepaso coalition. To
   avoid a runoff, Menem needs 45 percent of the vote or 40 percent with
   a 10-point lead over his nearest rival. 
   
   Menem's strength has been his economic policies. Since he took office
   in 1989, inflation has plunged from 5,000 percent annually to 3.9
   percent in 1994. Argentina now has a stable currency and four years of
   enviable growth. 
   
   ``We've put an end to the Argentina of decadence and paralysis,''
   Menem told the Clarin newspaper this week. ``People aren't stupid and
   don't want to return to the past.'' 
   
   ``Either it's me or chaos,'' the 64- year-old president declared. 
   
   Victory would put Menem in the president's office for 10 straight
   years, eclipsing the tenure of Peron, who was in power from 1946 to
   1955. 
   
   But pollsters say Menem's claim to that legacy may be threatened by
   voters' focus on the social costs of his economic reforms -- and by
   recent confessions of how the military tortured and killed political
   adversaries in the 1970s. 
   
   In recent weeks, military officers have confessed to dumping live
   prisoners from airplanes into the Rio de la Plata and Atlantic Ocean
   and have acknowledged other atrocities committed during the military
   dictatorship's campaign against leftists from 1976 to 1983. About
   9,000 people disappeared and are presumed dead. 
   
   The revelations have opened Menem to charges that he has tried to
   smother discussion of the war. In 1990, Menem granted amnesty to
   officers involved in the violence, and he has long urged Argentines
   put the difficult period behind them. 
   
   Further chipping away at Menem's lead is concern about 12.2 percent
   unemployment and unrest in interior provinces that have been
   struggling to meet public payrolls. 
   
   Bordon, a 49-year-old sociologist and former Peronist, has pledged to
   help the middle class, combat unemployment and increase social
   security payments to pensioners, many of whom receive just $150 a
   month. 
   
   Accused by the government of being a free-spender, Bordon says Menem
   is using scare tactics to get re-elected. He pledges to pay for the
   reforms in part with $6 billion a year saved by cracking down on
   administrative corruption and inefficiency. 
   
   If the election goes to a second round, pollsters say the result could
   go either way. Bordon would attract supporters of the Radical Civic
   Union, whose candidate Horacio Massaccesi has 15 percent in recent
   polls. 
   
   But political uncertainty could produce a stock market nose-dive and a
   ``fear factor'' that would favor Menem. 
   
   In all, 14 candidates are running for the presidency, including Aldo
   Rico, head of the nationalist MODIN party and leader of two brief army
   rebellions since the restoration of democracy in 1983. 
   
    
     _________________________________________________________________ 
   
   
   
   DAY: SATURDAY 
   
   DATE: 5/13/95 
   
   PAGE: A10 
   
   )5/13/95 , San Francisco Chronicle, All Rights Reserved, All
   Unauthorized Duplication Prohibited
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